Cognitive Heuristics: Avoiding Availability Bias and Illusory Correlation

Abstract

Availability Heuristic and Illusory Correlation Cognitive heuristics explain how people fail to make rational and normal decisions based on how they perceive past or present information. Availability heuristics refers to a technique of using information that pops into our minds to make future decisions (Pachur et al, 2012). For instance, I always have the fear of boarding and flying on a plane, because of the numerous stories of plane crashes. In the availability heuristic, the probability of a plane occurring is very low when compared to a car accident which is highly probable. Illusory correlation is another heuristic that when a person puts more emphasis on one event and overlooks the others (Murphy et al, 2011). I have adopted the belief that all teachers are nice, which makes me automatically trust them. Additionally, I believe that Mondays are my lucky days, hence I believe that good events only occur on Mondays. I also choose to avoid the left lane when driving, because I recently saw a driver cause an accident when driving in the left lane. These three events affect my decision-making ability, while in the real sense, there is no correlation between the occurrences. Considering the base rates and making judgments based on patterns and trends would greatly reduce the availability heuristic. Revisiting old information and taking more time when thinking before making a judgment can also help avoid availability heuristics ((Pachur et al, 2012). In regards to illusory correlation, considering all the possibilities before making a judgment helps in avoiding this heuristic. Secondly, understanding the confirmation bias also helps one to avoid the illusory correlation. Confirmation bias occurs when one only looks at evidence that matches their belief and fails to look at the cases that do not support their belief (Murphy et...